The rationale is moving down a half-dozen slots or so in the first round wouldn’t prevent the Dolphins from still landing a top prospect but would help them make up for the lack of a third- or fourth-round pick, which were lost because of the NFL sanctions for tampering and as part of the Bradley Chubb trade of 2022, respectively.
Based on the mathematical numbers offered by the last 16 NFL drafts, when six teams traded down from 21 in the first round, the Dolphins would have a 37.5 percent chance of moving down Thursday night (there could be other statistical factors involved here, but play along here).
Here are the specifics of those six trades to get an idea of the return, which obviously depending on the difference between the top two picks exchanged.
The New England Patriots moved from 21 to 29 and received from Kansas City third- and fourth-round picks in that draft. The Chiefs had gotten that pick, incidentally, from the Dolphins as part of the Tyreek Hill trade after the Dolphins had acquired it from the San Francisco 49ers. With the 21st pick, the Chiefs selected cornerback Trent McDuffie.
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